Check out the full report here.
A new report from the Kentucky State Data Center at the University of Louisville provides population and household projections for the state of Kentucky, all 120 counties and the 15 Area Development Districts over the 2025 to 2050 period.
Source: University of Louisville, Kentucky State Data Center, Kentucky Population and Household Projections 2025-2050, June 2026
From 2025 to 2050, the population of Kentucky is projected to increase by 5.1% - an increase of 233,881 residents. The number of households is projected to increase 7.7% over the same period. However, projected population growth varies substantially from county to county. Among the 120 counties, 59 are expected to grow while the remaining 61 are forecasted to lose residents through a combination of population aging and outmigration.
Jefferson and Fayette counties are projected to remain the most populous counties in 2050, with growth rates of 6.7% and 9.8% respectively. The county with the largest projected population gain is Warren, with a projected growth rate of 47.3%, or an increase of 70,697 residents, surpassing Kenton County to become the state’s third most populous county with 220,072 residents.
Scott (+46.1%), Madison (+35.1%), Shelby (+28.6%), and Spencer (+28.2%) round out the five counties projected to experience the largest percentage population gains.
It is also expected that Robertson, Owsley and Hickman counties will remain the state’s least populous counties in 2050, each with fewer than 3,500 residents.
The counties expected to have the largest percentage population losses by 2050 are concentrated in eastern Kentucky and include Letcher (-37.4%), Pike (-35.0%), Leslie (-34.8%), Knott (-34.8%) and Martin (-33.7%).
The report also includes projections for demographic shifts, birth rates, life expectancy, migration and household size.
